Coming Subtractions

Through the future darkly--and with pepperoni
Originally printed in Computer Currents November 25, 1997


When it comes to predicting the future of computing, few industry observers can match the impressive record of Jack Pompdonkey. It was Pompdonkey, after all, who predicted that Borland would surpass Microsoft in 1993, that PC users would never give up the convenience of the command-line interface, and that the NeXT Workstation spelled the end of Apple.

Looking for similar insights into what will happen as we approach the millennium, I interviewed Pompdonkey at his office near the University of West Virginia at Honolulu.

Lincoln Spector: What will be the most significant trend in the computer industry over the next five years?

Jack Pompdonkey: Internet-based pizza delivery. It's already being tried on an experimental basis in a few areas, although they haven't worked out all the bugs, so to speak. Order uploading is pretty much there, but the PSPs--that's Pizza Service Providers--are still using trucks to download the pizza. Eventually, faster modems will solve this problem of mozzarella in the pipeline. In the meantime, I understand there've been some promising experiments with faxing.

LS: Fascinating. Who will profit most from this?

JP: Initially most of the money will go to a joint venture between Quarterdeck and Round Table. Once this QuarterTable consortium becomes profitable, of course, Microsoft will decide that selling pizza is a logical extension of the operating system.

LS: So you're predicting that Microsoft will get into the retail food business?

JP: Absolutely. As we speak, Bill Gates is buying up the electronic rights to thousands of cultural edibles. This isn't as bad as it sounds. For once, users will be able to eat Microsoft's lunch.

LS: What else are they up to in Redmond?

JP: After pizza, the next big thing will be software capable of repairing itself. For instance, what happens if you corrupt a .dll file that Office requires for an essential task--like tripling the size of its data files? Neither Word nor Excel will load. Within two years, there will be a version of Office which, if it senses a corrupt .dll, will automatically launch a special intelligent code-authoring agent that will rewrite and compile the file and get you up and debugging in no time.

LS: What if you corrupt a .dll that's used by that code-authoring agent?

JP: New versions of Office will have redundancy built in. There will be a special code-authoring agent designed specifically to rebuild the special code-authoring agent, and another agent intended solely to rebuild that. Microsoft has a special advantage in this area because it designs all of its code around the assumption that you have an infinite amount of hard disk space.

LS: If we can change the subject for a moment, what do you see happening in the year 2000?

JP: Well, I may get the money my book publisher owes me, but I doubt it.

LS: Anything else?

JP: People will find their personal computers totally useless. Spreadsheets will produce inaccurate results, databases will lock up, operating systems will crash with frightening regularity.

LS: All because of the Year 2000 Problem?

JP: No, because that's what computers are like. The Year 2000 Problem will cause other messes, some of which are happening already. I'll give you a personal example: Last month I received some prescription medicine with an expiration date of 10/1/00. I hired five lawyers before I realized that I had not been sold 97-year-old Darvon.

When the century actually changes, things will get much worse. In the personal computer world, some of the biggest problems will be with disk defraggers. Imagine what would happen if you were optimizing your hard drive at midnight on New Year's Eve. Your defragger would think that it's been working on your drive for a century, producing an error requiring a full diagnostic overview.

Since your computer will think it's living in the era of mutton-chop whiskers and starched collars, all files dated in the "future" will be deleted while you're off somewhere getting drunk. When the disk scan deletes the boot sector it will activate your anti-virus program, which will blow out your monitor and printer as a warning.

LS: So basically, you're saying that people's personal computers are in danger of catastrophic destruction come the new millennium?

JP: Not a chance. There won't be any electricity. On that date, due to the problems in mainframes and embedded systems running the power grid, the entire infrastructure of society will break down. No electricity, no water--there won't even be any mail delivery on January 1st. It could be weeks before members of Congress receive a single corporate donation, sending our entire form of government into chaos and quite possibly saving the country.

LS: Jack, you've given us a lot to think about. Any advice you can give my readers to help them face what's coming in the computer industry?

JP: Of course. Everything is changing. Shut up and take it.

© Copyright 1997 by Lincoln Spector

Return to main Gigglebytes page